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Natural Threats in an Urban Scenario Extreme Weather Strains Municipal Resources and Taxpayers
September, 2007
By Glenn McGillivray and Dan Sandink
Over the past 20 years, there has been growing evidence that the climate is changing. Its impact is noticeable internationally, nationally and locally.
Within the past two years we have been witness to the most costly weather-related disaster globally and the second most costly weather-related disaster nationally. Across Canada many jurisdictions are also experiencing more severe weather than in the past.
Twenty years ago, average insured losses caused by severe weather were US $3.7 billion annually with associated economic losses amounting to US $29.4 billion (inflation adjusted for constant 2004 dollars based on a five year moving average). Contrast that with 2004, a then record, with US $46 billion in insured natural catastrophe losses and US $123 billion in economic losses; or 2005, the costliest year on record, with US $78 billion in insured losses and US $230 billion in economic losses.
Globally, many weather-related events have breached points well outside the norm. According to NASA, 2005 was the hottest year in a century. Munich Re reports that the nine warmest years on record occurred between 1995 and 2005, and the U.S.-based Insurance Information Institute points out that seven of the 10 most expensive hurricanes in U.S. history occurred between August 2004 and October 2005.
ESCALATING INCIDENTS
Canada has not been untouched by recent severe weather extremes. In August 2005, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) was hit with the most expensive natural catastrophe in Ontario history, the second most costly ever for the country. Heavy rains breaching the 100-year event level (153 mm and, by some accounts, as much as 175 mm) washed away infrastructure, flooded basements and damaged cars with falling trees and rising flood waters.
Two tornadoes set down in the Salem/Fergus, Ontario area, damaging several properties. A tornado warning was also issued for Toronto, a rarity. All in all, the event caused more than $500 million in insured losses.
Many municipalities in Alberta were flooded - not once, but twice - from two massive storms in June 2005 that occurred less than 10 days apart. The storms caused an estimated $300 million in insured damage.
Earlier in the year, on April 28, as much as 100 mm of rain fell across Quebec and New Brunswick at a time when snowmelt was already stressing storm sewer systems and watersheds. According to Environment Canada, Montreal received 390 mm of rain in 2005, about 145% more than the average. Insured damage approached $60 million.
Communities in Atlantic Canada observed several record snowfall events in the early part of the year, as well. What's more, a November 9 tornado in Hamilton, Ontario, tore the roof off a school and left several homes uninhabitable.
More recently, at the end of 2006 and early 2007, BC was battered by several successive winter storms which brought down trees, including thousands in Vancouver's famed Stanley Park - damage projected to have an impact on tourism there. These storms also tore roofs from buildings and triggered an unprecedented boil-water advisory. More than 9,300 claims were tallied as a result of the string of storms, totalling more than $135 million in damage.
In June 2002 and July 2004, Peterborough, Ontario was hit with floods. In just two years, the city was hit with inundations that statistically should have occurred on average just once every 100 and 290 years.
During the summers of 2004, 2005 and 2006, Hamilton was also hit with significant flood events, return periods of which are estimated to be once in 50 to 100 years for the August 19, 2005 storm (which was part of the same system which hit Toronto) and once in four to 10 years for the 2004 and 2006 storms. All three caused many Hamilton property owners to experience sewer backup and basement flooding.
While the first and third of these events proved to be statistically more frequent, the August 19 storm was extreme, generating some impressive metrics (including reports from the city that the deluge required that more than 1,000 tonnes of shale and debris - 64 truckloads - be removed from the Chedoke Golf Course West Inlet).
In British Columbia the mountain pine beetle has lunched on stands of trees, the total area of which is larger than the province of New Brunswick, increasing the risk that wildfires could rapidly spread across affected areas. The infestation has begun to extend into the province's interior urban areas, killing trees in municipal parks and on private property, increasing the risk of trees falling on people, cars and structures, and of power outages. According to Avram Lazar, President of the Forest Products Association of Canada: "The mountain pine beetle would've died if we hadn't had the last 12 winters being the warmest 12 winters on record."
REACTIVE AND PROACTIVE MEASURES
Although it cannot yet be categorically stated that individual extreme weather events are increasing directly because of climate change, it can certainly be stated without reservation that the cost of damage from natural disasters is increasing, and has doubled every five to seven years since the 1950s. And the increase in extreme events is consistent with the science of climate change.
Being the order of government closest to the people, municipalities are at ground zero. So the question now is: where do local governments go from here?
Though some local governments are considering the impacts of climate change and incorporating actions into their planning, most continue to react after they are confronted by climate extremes. Most often, such reactions come as a result of a specific major loss event or series of events.
Such reactive measures include the striking of independent study panels and committees, as well as the launching of comprehensive strategies to address single weather risks - i.e. the City of Peterborough's plan to address flooding after the 2004 event, or individual programs such as backflow valve or downspout disconnect programs.
Several local governments have launched programs to reduce emissions - both their own and those of their citizens. This includes anti-idling bylaws and energy efficiency promotions such as giving out free low-watt light bulbs and offering strings of new LED Christmas lights in exchange for old, high-voltage lights.
A comprehensive municipal strategy for adapting to the increasing risk of severe weather will incorporate disaster resilience, adaptation and sustainability into municipal risk management, resulting in increased economic vibrancy and prosperity in participating cities. The goals of an adaptation strategy should be to:
( Build municipal capacity for natural hazard risk reduction;
( Protect public and private property from the impacts of natural disasters;
( Establish a disaster resilient economy; and
( Prevent injuries and death caused by natural disasters.
The approach should establish tools that will help municipalities develop coherent, cross-departmental strategies to increase natural hazards resiliency. In many Canadian municipalities, individual departments and agencies go it alone when addressing the risks associated with natural hazards, addressing them only within the silo of their departments or areas of responsibility. Forums for communication and cooperation will help departments within municipalities share resources and disaster reduction strategies.
Additionally, engaging high-level leadership within a given municipality will ensure that the local government's approach to hazards planning is coordinated across all departments. By leveraging and maximizing existing local and other resources, including national and international, municipalities should become more resilient to severe weather while using as few resources as possible.
Glenn McGillivray is Managing Director and Dan Sandink is Research Coordinator for the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, an independent, not-for-profit research institute focusing on sustained actions that improve society's capacity to adapt to, anticipate, mitigate, withstand and recover from natural disasters. For more information, see the web site at www.iclr.org. The preceding article is excerpted from Disaster Management Canada, Summer 2007.
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